Musk agrees Starlink orbit traffic jam a ‘silly narrative’ • The Register
SpaceX boss Elon Musk has backed claims that the ballooning number of satellites in orbit around the Earth isn’t a problem, signing off on a comment stating that “10 times the number of spacecraft” would still not present a challenge.
The claim was made on Musk’s social media mouthpiece, X, on November 22, by a poster who described themselves as “All-in $TSLA since 08/2019,” and stated:
The poster added: “People look at images like this one and don’t seem to realize these satellite dots are not to scale, they’re the size of the island of Maui – We can easily 10× the number satellites in orbit and there still wouldn’t be any problem.”
Musk’s response? “Exactly.”
It makes sense for Musk to respond this way – Starlink satellites number in the thousands, and worries over overcrowding overhead would be quite inconvenient to the billionaire’s plans to launch thousands more of the spacecraft to the growing broadband and direct-to-cell satellite constellation.
Certain posters on X and elsewhere using dubious data to back up their points are nothing new. In this instance, it is suggested that the scaling of dots representing satellites pushes an overcrowding narrative to paint Musk’s SpaceX as “the bad guy.” However, the same post also wonders why the 100,000+ ships navigating the oceans do not also cause alarm.
Maybe if those ships traveled at orbital velocity and every collision resulted in a debris field that could endanger other vessels, then perhaps there would be alarm. But we digress.
The worrying thing is Musk’s response, which appears to give credence to those who deny that the Kessler syndrome is a looming problem.
The Kessler syndrome was proposed in 1978 by NASA scientists, including Donald Kessler, and suggested a scenario whereby the number of objects in Low Earth Orbit – satellites and debris – would increase to the point where collisions are more likely to occur. These collisions would create more debris, which would cause more collisions, which would create more debris, and so on.
Although atmospheric drag would eventually pull the debris back down to Earth, the rate at which debris could be created would be such that some orbits might end up inaccessible for decades.
While collisions between satellites remain relatively rare, and although the European Space Agency’s Aeolus satellite had to dodge one of Musk’s Starlinks in 2019, the problem of smaller pieces of debris colliding is a growing one.
Chiara Manfletti, CEO of Neuraspace, commented: “The issue of space debris is not a new one nor is it one that will go away by simply doing nothing. Nor will someone else take care of the problem for us. Large defunct objects in space pose a large threat due to the possibility of fragmentation, collisions or explosions. Active objects not equipped with propulsion system and not aware of the need to maneuver also pose a threat.”
Manfletti noted that scientific models “estimate the total number of space debris objects in Earth orbit to be 30,000 for sizes larger than 10 cm (including satellites), 670,000 for sizes larger than 1 cm and more than 170 million for sizes larger than 1 mm.”
She added: “Any one of those poses a potential conjunction threat and might force operators to take evasive actions. The need for national safety and security and to protect critical infrastructure both in space as well as on ground, services we consider basic such as communications, financial exchanges, and transportation are at risk, and it would be catastrophic to turn a blind eye to this growing threat.”
Speaking about the SpaceX offshoot specifically, Manfletti opined: “Starlink satellites maneuver an estimated 275 times per day to avoid space objects. The economic and environmental impact of not acting cannot be ignored.”
Meanwhile, writing on the social media site Bluesky, space archeologist Dr Alice Gorman noted, “Collision with medium to small particles of space junk happens constantly. Their number is now held to be greater than the number of natural particles, and it’s growing all time. And each spacecraft explosion or fragmentation, including anti-satellite tests, increases the amount of junk.”
The problem of space debris is being taken very seriously by intergovernmental bodies. The European Space Agency, for example, has a Space Debris Office to coordinate research in debris modeling, predictions, and mitigation. Private companies, such as Neuraspace, have been set up to assist operators with managing the issue.
While SpaceX’s Starlink is not the only satellite constellation in orbit, its satellites are the most numerous, and the collision avoidance maneuvers carried out by the vehicles can be measured in the tens of thousands. Starlink satellites are also deorbited at the end of their operational lives or will reenter naturally after several years if the deorbit fails.
The rate at which Musk is flinging Starlink satellites into orbit is worrying for a variety of reasons. In situations where his company is being portrayed as a “bad guy,” we might suggest a good part of this could be attributed to this sort of flippant remark from Musk. Endorsing the proclamation that there shouldn’t be any problem if the number of satellites in orbit went up by ten times is a textbook example. ®
