ASML stock tumbles as tariff turmoil spoils 2026 estimate • The Register
World War Fee Shares in ASML fell by more than 8 percent after it warned that tariff uncertainty over future trade was increasing and net sales were down on the previous quarter.
The supplier of advanced chipmaking equipment tried to hit an upbeat note, saying that AI is still a big driver of growth for both logic and memory chips, and customers are investing in more capacity for the most advanced production nodes.
However, looking ahead, CEO Christophe Fouquet warned about the potential impact from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.
“Going into 2026, the fundamentals of our AI customers remain strong and we are still preparing for growth,” he said. “However, as we discussed last time, the level of uncertainty is increasing, mostly due to macroeconomic and geopolitical considerations. And that includes, of course, tariffs.”
The assessment flew in the face of the ASML’s previous assessment that revenue would grow next year, with analyst expectations of seven percent growth coming in 2026.
ASML described the tariff picture as complicated, because it’s not just the direct sales of finished equipment to US customers that will be affected. If parts are sent for manufacturing in America, or replacement parts for servicing, these will also draw tariffs. If other regions such as the EU match the US tariffs, this would affect parts or modules coming out of the US.
“We are working with the supply chain and with our customers to at least make sure that the impact for ASML is as limited as possible,” said CFO Roger Dassen.
This unpredictability has overshadowed the recent easing of US chip controls on exports to China that mean Nvidia and AMD will be able to resume sales of some of their GPU accelerators to Chinese customers, leading Dassen to comment that this would likely be a positive development for chip demand.
Former ASML boss Peter Wennink last year blasted the US-China “chip wars” as being mainly ideological in nature, and said the effects might play out over decades.
Today, ASML said that it expects at least 25 percent of its revenue to come from China in the near future, in line with the current backlog of orders. This follows efforts by the US government to curb chipmakers in the Middle Kingdom from having access to ASML’s technology.
That said, the 25 percent plus figure is a big drop from early in 2024, when China accounted for nearly half of ASML’s sales due to a rush of orders in anticipation of export restrictions.
For its calendar Q2 ended June 30, the company reported net income of €2.3 billion ($2.67 billion) on revenue of €7.692 billion ($8.93 billion), which is up on the same period a year ago, but slightly below the revenue level it had previously forecast.
ASML said its quarterly net bookings were worth €5.5 billion ($6.4 billion), of which €2.3 billion ($2.67 billion) is for the higher-end extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography kit.
For the next quarter (Q3 2025), ASML forecasts total net sales of between €7.4 billion ($8.6 billion) and €7.9 billion ($9.2 billion), while for the whole of this year, the company expects revenue to be about 15 percent up on the figure for 2024. ®
